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Coquimbo Unido vs Union La Calera — Primera División 2018

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Union La Calera
Union La Calera
12/1/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 29Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Coquimbo Unido44%
×Draw27%
Union La Calera29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.39
Union La Calera
1.08

Coquimbo Unido creates 29% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 127 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.43
Union La Calera
1.12

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.04
Union La Calera
1.35

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Union La Calera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
71%
Coquimbo Unido or Union La Calera
73%
Draw or Union La Calera
56%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
21%
Union La Calera wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
75%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
40%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
16%
Union La Calera 1+ goals
66%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
29%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
60%
Union La Calera (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.04 · 96 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.43 + Union La Calera defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.39

Union La Calera attack 1.12 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
44%
level
27%
Union La Calera scores more
29%

Coquimbo Unido at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Coquimbo Unido 1–2 Union La Calera

Union La Calera beat Coquimbo Unido 2-1 in Primera División on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.