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como vs Benevento — Serie B 2018

como
como
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Benevento
Benevento
A. Cerri 22', 4'
M. Leverbe 8'
10/22/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 10Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

como38%
×Draw28%
Benevento34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

como
1.23
Benevento
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 78 away

creates per match

como
1.40
Benevento
1.21

allows per match

como
1.05
Benevento
1.06

finishing

como+0.00on par
Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

como ↓

Benevento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

como or draw
66%
como or Benevento
72%
Draw or Benevento
62%

Winning margin

como wins by 2+
17%
Benevento wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

como 1+ goals
71%
como 2+ goals
35%
como 3+ goals
13%
Benevento 1+ goals
68%
Benevento 2+ goals
31%
Benevento 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

como (draw refunded)
53%
Benevento (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

como at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.06 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

como attack 1.40 + Benevento defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Benevento attack 1.21 + como defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

como scores more
38%
level
28%
Benevento scores more
34%

como at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "como will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
A. Cerricomocomo · F
8.7

Match Events

4'
A. Cerri
8'
M. Leverbe↳ C. Ciano
15'
I. Koutsoupias← C. Ciano
22'
A. Cerri↳ M. Chajia
29'
Álex Blanco← M. Chajia
39'
Nicholas Ioannou
40'
Ilias Koutsoupias
40'
Pasquale Schiattarella
45+3'
Maxime Leverbe
46'
Francesco Forte
46'
S. Ghidotti← M. Vigorito
46'
Diego Farias← M. Leverbe
68'
Diego Farias
69'
D. Foulon← R. Improta
69'
S. Nwankwo← N. Karić
71'
E. Celeghin← D. Baselli
71'
V. Parigini← P. Cutrone
75'
Cas Odenthal
81'
A. Iovine← T. Arrigoni
85'
D. Vokić← F. Forte

Possession

34%como

Shots

5como

Pass accuracy

45%como

Statistics

comoBenevento
Overview
34%Possession66%
5Total Shots13
2Corners9
16Fouls13
Shots
5Total Shots13
4On Target5
0Off Target8
1Blocked0
3Inside Box7
2Outside Box6
Passing
34%Possession66%
226Total Passes410
149Accurate Passes331
66%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls13
2Yellow Cards5
4Offsides1

Match Recap: como vs Benevento

como beat Benevento 2-1 in Serie B on October 22, 2022.

Goals: A. Cerri (4', 22'), M. Leverbe (8').

Benevento controlled possession (66%) and registered 13 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Como.