como 1–1 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

como

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Benevento

A. Cerri 34' (pen)

G. Lapadula 40'

9/25/2021

Serie B · Round 6Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

como38%

×Draw28%

Benevento34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

comoExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

como

1.23

Benevento

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 79 away

1.40

creates per match

1.24

1.05

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

como

1.40

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

como

1.05

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

como+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

como ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

como or draw

66%

como or Benevento

72%

Draw or Benevento

62%

Winning margin

como wins by 2+

16%

Benevento wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

como 1+ goals

71%

como 2+ goals

35%

como 3+ goals

13%

Benevento 1+ goals

68%

Benevento 2+ goals

32%

Benevento 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

como (draw refunded)

53%

Benevento (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

como at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

como attack 1.40 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.23

Benevento attack 1.24 + como defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

como scores more

38%

level

28%

Benevento scores more

34%

como at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "como will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

A. Cerri

como · F

7.7

Match Events

19'

Kamil Glik

21'

A. Vogliacco← E. Brignola

34'

A. CerriPenalty

35'

Alberto Cerri

40'

G. Lapadula↳ A. Tello

56'

Andrés Tello

56'

G. Calò← A. Tello

63'

A. La Gumina← E. Gliozzi

63'

M. Chajia← A. Iovine

68'

Vittorio Parigini

71'

G. Acampora← M. Viviani

71'

G. Moncini← S. Elia

78'

N. Ioannou← A. Cagnano

78'

A. Gabrielloni← V. Parigini

78'

I. H'Maidat← T. Arrigoni

80'

Alessandro Gabrielloni

85'

Nicholas Ioannou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

comoBenevento

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots11

5Corners4

18Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots11

1On Target3

8Off Target6

2Blocked2

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

379Total Passes477

292Accurate Passes393

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3