Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Benevento vs como — Serie B 2018

Benevento
Benevento
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
como
como
3/11/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 29Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Benevento47%
×Draw25%
como28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benevento
1.57
como
1.16

Benevento creates 35% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 57 away

creates per match

Benevento
1.70
como
1.30

allows per match

Benevento
1.01
como
1.44

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par
como+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

como →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Benevento or draw
72%
Benevento or como
75%
Draw or como
53%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+
24%
como wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals
79%
Benevento 2+ goals
46%
Benevento 3+ goals
21%
como 1+ goals
69%
como 2+ goals
32%
como 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)
62%
como (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

como away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.70 + como defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.57

como attack 1.30 + Benevento defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Benevento scores more
47%
level
25%
como scores more
28%

Benevento at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
N. ManfrediniBeneventoBenevento · G
8.0

Match Events

35'
Daam Foulon
42'
Andrés Tello
47'
Andrés Tello
47'
Andrés Tello
51'
Tommaso Arrigoni
55'
J. Da Riva← T. Arrigoni
62'
Alessandro Bellemo
64'
Pasquale Schiattarella
66'
M. Viviani← P. Schiattarella
66'
S. Nwankwo← A. La Gumina
68'
M. Chajia← L. Binks
69'
A. Gabrielloni← L. Mancuso
78'
P. Cutrone← A. Cerri
78'
V. Parigini← L. da Cunha
88'
C. Pastina← G. Acampora
88'
K. Kubica← R. Improta
90+4'
Gaetano Letizia
90+4'
Moutir Chajia
90+2'
Alessandro Gabrielloni
90+6'
R. Jureškin← D. Foulon

Possession

47%Benevento

Shots

3Benevento

Pass accuracy

48%Benevento

Statistics

Beneventocomo
Overview
47%Possession53%
3Total Shots16
7Corners3
12Fouls17
Shots
3Total Shots16
2On Target5
0Off Target6
1Blocked5
1Inside Box10
2Outside Box6
Passing
47%Possession53%
330Total Passes367
248Accurate Passes302
75%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls17
5Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Benevento vs como

Benevento and como drew 0-0 in Serie B on March 11, 2023.

como controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 3.

The match was played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Benevento.