Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 10+ matches
Comerciantes Unidos39%
Alianza Atletico32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Comerciantes Unidos creates 14% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Comerciantes Unidos ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches
Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13
Alianza Atletico attack 0.66 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Comerciantes Unidos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Alianza Lima
Cusco
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADTAlianza AtleticoComerciantes Unidos
Sport Huancayo
Sport Boys
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
UTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Comerciantes Unidos host Alianza Atletico on Wednesday, 22 April 2026 at 18:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Primera División: Comerciantes Unidos 1–0 Alianza Atletico
Comerciantes Unidos beat Alianza Atletico 1-0 in Primera División on April 22, 2026.
Goals: J. Rodriguez (54').
Alianza Atletico controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 10.
The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Cutervo.