Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos — Primera División 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 10+ matches
Alianza Atletico54%
Comerciantes Unidos21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alianza Atletico creates 79% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alianza Atletico ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 15 matches
Comerciantes Unidos away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.81 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alianza Atletico attack 1.42 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61
Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Alianza Atletico at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Alianza Lima
Cusco
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADTAlianza AtleticoComerciantes Unidos
Sport Huancayo
Sport Boys
Atletico Grau
Juan Pablo II College
UTC Cajamarca
Ayacucho FC
Alianza Universidad
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo BinacionalIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Alianza Atletico host Comerciantes Unidos on Thursday, 12 June 2025 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos
Alianza Atletico beat Comerciantes Unidos 3-0 in Primera División on June 12, 2025.
Goals: A. Graneros (17'), H. Lupu (27'), R. Diaz (68').
Comerciantes Unidos controlled possession (60%) and registered 2 shots to 17.
The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.