Comerciantes Unidos 1–0 Alianza Atletico

Comerciantes Unidos

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Atletico

A. Lecaros 17'

10/18/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Comerciantes Unidos39%

×Draw30%

Alianza Atletico32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Comerciantes UnidosExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.99

Comerciantes Unidos

1.13

Alianza Atletico

0.99

Comerciantes Unidos creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

0.96

creates per match

0.66

1.31

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Comerciantes Unidos

0.96

Alianza Atletico

0.66

allows per match

Comerciantes Unidos

1.31

Alianza Atletico

1.30

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Comerciantes Unidos-0.04on par

Alianza Atletico-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Comerciantes Unidos ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Comerciantes Unidos or draw

68%

Comerciantes Unidos or Alianza Atletico

70%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

61%

Winning margin

Comerciantes Unidos wins by 2+

16%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Comerciantes Unidos 1+ goals

68%

Comerciantes Unidos 2+ goals

31%

Comerciantes Unidos 3+ goals

11%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

63%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

26%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Comerciantes Unidos (draw refunded)

55%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Comerciantes Unidos at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Comerciantes Unidos attack 0.96 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Alianza Atletico attack 0.66 + Comerciantes Unidos defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Comerciantes Unidos scores more

39%

level

30%

Alianza Atletico scores more

32%

Comerciantes Unidos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Comerciantes Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Perez

Alianza Atletico · M

8.0

Match Events

17'

A. Lecaros↳ W. Guzman

38'

Miguel Agustín Graneros

43'

C. Saavedra← A. Lecaros

45+5'

45+3'

46'

48'

58'

José VillegasGoal cancelled

63'

P. Mendez← G. Paredes

63'

R. Chipao← J. Marina

65'

Guillermo Larios

68'

A. Cossio← E. Perleche

68'

C. Vasquez← H. Benincasa

70'

Diego Melián

73'

M. Perez← S. Fernandez

75'

Franchesco Flores

77'

Jimmy Pérez

77'

R. Diaz← G. A. Larios Saavedra

83'

Y. Vilchez← W. Guzman

88'

Christian Vasquez

90+7'

Yordi Vílchez

90+3'

Matias Sen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ComerciantesAlianza

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots16

0.50Expected Goals (xG)0.79

0Corners2

21Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots16

4On Target3

3Off Target12

2Blocked1

2Inside Box11

7Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

273Total Passes372

207Accurate Passes303

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls16

4Yellow Cards7

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico

Comerciantes Unidos beat Alianza Atletico 1-0 in Primera División on October 18, 2025.

Goals: A. Lecaros (17').

Alianza Atletico controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra in Cutervo.

Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico