Colon Santa Fe 1–1 Aldosivi: Result & Stats

Colon Santa Fe

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aldosivi

3/10/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 6Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Colon Santa Fe45%

×Draw31%

Aldosivi25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colon Santa FeExpected goals in this matchAldosivi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.78

Colon Santa Fe

1.16

Aldosivi

0.78

Colon Santa Fe creates 49% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 36 away

1.15

creates per match

0.97

0.59

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Colon Santa Fe

1.15

Aldosivi

0.97

allows per match

Colon Santa Fe

0.59

Aldosivi

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colon Santa Fe+0.00on par

Aldosivi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colon Santa Fe ↓

Aldosivi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Colon Santa Fe or draw

75%

Colon Santa Fe or Aldosivi

69%

Draw or Aldosivi

55%

Winning margin

Colon Santa Fe wins by 2+

19%

Aldosivi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Colon Santa Fe 1+ goals

69%

Colon Santa Fe 2+ goals

32%

Colon Santa Fe 3+ goals

11%

Aldosivi 1+ goals

54%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

18%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Colon Santa Fe (draw refunded)

64%

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colon Santa Fe at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.59 · 46 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colon Santa Fe attack 1.15 + Aldosivi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Aldosivi attack 0.97 + Colon Santa Fe defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Colon Santa Fe scores more

45%

level

31%

Aldosivi scores more

25%

Colon Santa Fe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Colon Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff