Colon Santa Fe vs Aldosivi — Liga Profesional Argentina 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 85+ matches
Colon Santa Fe45%
Aldosivi27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Colon Santa Fe creates 36% more chances
Season form · 85 home / 95 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Colon Santa Fe ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Colon Santa Fe at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches
Aldosivi away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.49 · 95 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Colon Santa Fe attack 1.14 + Aldosivi defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31
Aldosivi attack 0.78 + Colon Santa Fe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Colon Santa Fe at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Colon Santa Fe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Racing Club
Defensa Y Justicia
Boca Juniors
River Plate
Atletico Tucuman
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
Union Santa Fe
Tigre
Huracan
Lanus
Talleres CordobaAldosivi
Godoy Cruz
Newells Old Boys
Banfield
Estudiantes L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
Patronato
Rosario Central
San Martin S.J.
Belgrano Cordoba
San LorenzoColon Santa Fe
San Martin Tucuman
Argentinos JrsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Colon Santa Fe host Aldosivi on Tuesday, 19 July 2022 at 19:30. The match is part of the Liga Profesional Argentina 2018/2019 season.
Liga Profesional Argentina: Colon Santa Fe 1–1 Aldosivi
Colon Santa Fe and Aldosivi drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 19, 2022.
The match was played at Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López in Ciudad de Santa Fe, Provincia de Santa Fe.