Aldosivi 3–0 Colon Santa Fe: Result & Stats

Aldosivi

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Colon Santa Fe

8/20/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 7Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Aldosivi37%

×Draw28%

Colon Santa Fe35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AldosiviExpected goals in this matchColon Santa Fe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.15

Aldosivi

1.19

Colon Santa Fe

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 82 away

0.99

creates per match

0.90

1.39

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Aldosivi

0.99

Colon Santa Fe

0.90

allows per match

Aldosivi

1.39

Colon Santa Fe

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aldosivi+0.00on par

Colon Santa Fe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Colon Santa Fe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw

65%

Aldosivi or Colon Santa Fe

72%

Draw or Colon Santa Fe

63%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+

16%

Colon Santa Fe wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals

70%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

33%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

12%

Colon Santa Fe 1+ goals

68%

Colon Santa Fe 2+ goals

32%

Colon Santa Fe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

51%

Colon Santa Fe (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.39 · 93 matches

Colon Santa Fe away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 0.99 + Colon Santa Fe defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Colon Santa Fe attack 0.90 + Aldosivi defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aldosivi scores more

37%

level

28%

Colon Santa Fe scores more

35%

Aldosivi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff