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Colchester vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
Preview
15:00
Walsall
Walsall
10/31/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 14
Big match
39%
Walsall
model favours
36%25%39%
1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Colchester36%
×Draw25%
Walsall39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.38
Walsall
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.46
Walsall
1.85

allows per match

Colchester
1.00
Walsall
1.29

finishing

Colchester+0.08on par
Walsall-0.03on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
61%
Colchester or Walsall
75%
Draw or Walsall
64%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
17%
Walsall wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
75%
Colchester 2+ goals
40%
Colchester 3+ goals
16%
Walsall 1+ goals
76%
Walsall 2+ goals
42%
Walsall 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
48%
Walsall (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.46 + Walsall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Walsall attack 1.85 + Colchester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchester scores more
36%
level
25%
Walsall scores more
39%

Walsall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Colchester
Balanced
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
51%PossessionBiggest gap43%
71%Pass accuracy64%
11.4Shots12.0
1.29xG1.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ColchesterWalsall

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Colchester
5
Draws
3
Walsall
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
1–12–02–10–41–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Colchester
LWWDW
Walsall
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colchester vs Walsall — Match Preview

Colchester face Walsall on October 31, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.