Colchester 0–0 Walsall: Result & Stats | League Two

Colchester

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Walsall

2/14/2023

League Two · Round 32JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Colchester35%

×Draw26%

Walsall39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.39

Colchester

1.30

Walsall

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.41

creates per match

1.78

0.99

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Colchester

1.41

Walsall

1.78

allows per match

Colchester

0.99

Walsall

1.20

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more

Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

61%

Colchester or Walsall

74%

Draw or Walsall

65%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

15%

Walsall wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

73%

Colchester 2+ goals

37%

Colchester 3+ goals

14%

Walsall 1+ goals

75%

Walsall 2+ goals

40%

Walsall 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

47%

Walsall (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Walsall attack 1.78 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchester scores more

35%

level

26%

Walsall scores more

39%

Walsall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

B. Comley

Walsall · M

7.5

Match Events

54'

R. Willmott← J. Maddox

58'

Junior Tchamadeu

62'

Donervon Daniels

75'

A. Read← L. Chambers

75'

M. Stevens← L. Gordon

76'

K. Appiah← J. Akinde

76'

S. Tovide← T. Hopper

84'

Samson Tovide

85'

A. Newby← M. Jay

89'

A. Williams← J. Matt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterWalsall

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots7

0Corners7

10Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots7

2On Target1

3Off Target3

1Blocked3

4Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

253Total Passes315

148Accurate Passes187

58%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2