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Colchester vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Walsall
Walsall
F. Sears 56' (pen), 24'
G. Miller 48'
B. Kiernan 39'
4/30/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 45JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Colchester35%
×Draw26%
Walsall39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.30
Walsall
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.41
Walsall
1.78

allows per match

Colchester
0.99
Walsall
1.20

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more
Walsall-0.09on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
61%
Colchester or Walsall
74%
Draw or Walsall
65%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
15%
Walsall wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
73%
Colchester 2+ goals
37%
Colchester 3+ goals
14%
Walsall 1+ goals
75%
Walsall 2+ goals
40%
Walsall 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
47%
Walsall (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Walsall defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Walsall attack 1.78 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchester scores more
35%
level
26%
Walsall scores more
39%

Walsall at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
B. KiernanWalsallWalsall · F
8.7

Match Events

24'
F. Sears↳ E. Huws
39'
B. Kiernan
43'
C. Coxe← M. Kenlock
46'
J. Akinde← E. Huws
48'
G. Miller↳ B. Kiernan
56'
F. SearsPenalty
60'
L. Kinsella← S. Perry
80'
D. Rodney← E. Osadebe
81'
T. Wright← A. Judge
83'
Emmanuel Monthe
90+1'
J. Shaw← B. Kiernan

Possession

51%Colchester

Shots

18Colchester

Pass accuracy

48%Colchester

Statistics

ColchesterWalsall
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots15
3Corners3
9Fouls13
Shots
18Total Shots15
4On Target7
8Off Target5
6Blocked3
9Inside Box11
9Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
323Total Passes313
198Accurate Passes206
61%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Colchester vs Walsall

Colchester and Walsall drew 2-2 in League Two on April 30, 2022.

Goals: F. Sears (24', 56' pen), B. Kiernan (39'), G. Miller (48').

Colchester controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.