Colchester 2–3 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

J. Taylor 13', 10'

0 M. Dennis 90+10'

A. Gilbey 88'

M. Eisa 8'

8/19/2023

League Two · Round 4JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Colchester41%

×Draw25%

Milton Keynes Dons34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.31

Colchester

1.47

Milton Keynes Dons

1.31

Colchester creates 12% more chances

Season form · 180 home / 93 away

1.37

creates per match

1.54

1.09

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Colchester

1.37

Milton Keynes Dons

1.54

allows per match

Colchester

1.09

Milton Keynes Dons

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

66%

Colchester or Milton Keynes Dons

75%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

59%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

20%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

77%

Colchester 2+ goals

43%

Colchester 3+ goals

18%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

73%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

38%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

55%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.09 · 180 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.37 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.54 + Colchester defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colchester scores more

41%

level

25%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

34%

Colchester at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

J. Taylor

Colchester · F

8.5

Match Events

8'

M. Eisa↳ C. Norman

10'

J. Taylor↳ J. Fevrier

13'

J. Taylor↳ J. Tchamadeu

42'

Bradley Ihionvien

45+2'

Jayden Fevrier

45+5'

Mohamed Eisa

55'

A. Kazeem← T. Dallison-Lisbon

63'

63'

67'

77'

78'

Mauro Bandeira← B. Ihionvien

81'

82'

84'

85'

88'

89'

90+6'

90+11'

90+10'

0 M. Dennis↳ A. Hunter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterMilton

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots18

3Corners6

16Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots18

4On Target6

4Off Target6

4Blocked6

8Inside Box11

4Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

367Total Passes442

250Accurate Passes320

68%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls8

5Yellow Cards4

1Offsides4