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Colchester vs Exeter City — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Exeter City
Exeter City
12/29/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 24JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Colchester39%
×Draw27%
Exeter City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.32
Exeter City
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 161 home / 97 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.32
Exeter City
1.35

allows per match

Colchester
1.10
Exeter City
1.32

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
65%
Colchester or Exeter City
73%
Draw or Exeter City
61%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
17%
Exeter City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
73%
Colchester 2+ goals
38%
Colchester 3+ goals
15%
Exeter City 1+ goals
71%
Exeter City 2+ goals
35%
Exeter City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
53%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchester scores more
39%
level
27%
Exeter City scores more
35%

Colchester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colchester vs Exeter City

Colchester and Exeter City drew 2-2 in League Two on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.