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Colchester vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
Preview
19:45
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
2/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 30
Big match
40%
Colchester
model favours
40%27%33%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Colchester40%
×Draw27%
Bristol Rovers33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.34
Bristol Rovers
1.18

Colchester creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.46
Bristol Rovers
1.35

allows per match

Colchester
1.00
Bristol Rovers
1.23

finishing

Colchester+0.08on par
Bristol Rovers-0.10scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
67%
Colchester or Bristol Rovers
73%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
60%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
19%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
74%
Colchester 2+ goals
39%
Colchester 3+ goals
15%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
69%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
33%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
55%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.46 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bristol Rovers attack 1.35 + Colchester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colchester scores more
40%
level
27%
Bristol Rovers scores more
33%

Colchester at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Bristol Rovers win just 26% against the top half (vs 65% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Colchester
Balanced
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
51%Possession52%
71%Pass accuracy66%
11.4ShotsBiggest gap12.5
1.29xG1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ColchesterBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Colchester
2
Draws
2
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 60%
1–01–11–20–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Colchester
LWWDW
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Colchester vs Bristol Rovers — Match Preview

Colchester face Bristol Rovers on February 9, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.