Colchester 1–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bristol Rovers

M. Mbick 52'

F. Cavegn 40'

9/20/2025

League Two · Round 9Colchester Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Colchester40%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.18

Colchester

1.34

Bristol Rovers

1.18

Colchester creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.46

creates per match

1.35

1.00

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Colchester

1.46

Bristol Rovers

1.35

allows per match

Colchester

1.00

Bristol Rovers

1.23

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Colchester+0.08on par

Bristol Rovers-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

67%

Colchester or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

60%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

19%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

74%

Colchester 2+ goals

39%

Colchester 3+ goals

15%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

69%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

33%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

55%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.46 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bristol Rovers attack 1.35 + Colchester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colchester scores more

40%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

33%

Colchester at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

T. Bishop

Colchester · M

7.7

Match Events

21'

Tom Smith

40'

F. Cavegn↳ A. Chang

43'

Luke Thomas

43'

E. Harrison← P. Omochere

45+3'

Ellis Harrison

52'

M. Mbick↳ J. Payne

55'

J. Cotterill← A. Chang

55'

O. Dewsbury← F. Cavegn

59'

Joel Cotterill

78'

S. Tovide← M. Mbick

78'

J. Gordon← H. Anderson

78'

79'

79'

80'

83'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterBristol

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots10

4Corners2

7Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target1

1Off Target5

5Blocked4

9Inside Box9

1Outside Box1

Passing

51%Possession49%

379Total Passes370

268Accurate Passes251

71%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls17

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Colchester vs Bristol Rovers

Colchester and Bristol Rovers drew 1-1 in League Two on September 20, 2025.

Goals: F. Cavegn (40'), M. Mbick (52').

Colchester controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Colchester Community Stadium in Colchester.

Colchester vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Colchester vs Bristol Rovers