Bristol Rovers 0–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Colchester

O. Edwards 85'

1/17/2026

League Two · Round 27Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bristol Rovers49%

×Draw25%

Colchester26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.12

Bristol Rovers

1.63

Colchester

1.12

Bristol Rovers creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

1.40

creates per match

1.11

1.13

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.40

Colchester

1.11

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.13

Colchester

1.85

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.03on par

Colchester+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

74%

Bristol Rovers or Colchester

75%

Draw or Colchester

51%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

26%

Colchester wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

80%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

48%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

22%

Colchester 1+ goals

67%

Colchester 2+ goals

31%

Colchester 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

65%

Colchester (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.40 + Colchester defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.63

Colchester attack 1.11 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

49%

level

25%

Colchester scores more

26%

Bristol Rovers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

O. Edwards

Colchester · M

7.7

Match Events

7'

F. Terry← E. Iandolo

28'

Joel Senior

59'

K. Balmer← J. Senior

59'

E. Harrison← K. Thompson-Sommers

61'

Rob Hunt

66'

T. Lockyer← R. Harbottle

73'

Alfie Kilgour

73'

O. Edwards← K. Lisbie

78'

I. Hutchinson← L. Thomas

85'

89'

90+3'

90+8'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolColchester

Overview

47%Possession53%

5Total Shots10

0.67Expected Goals (xG)0.87

4Corners5

22Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots10

1On Target2

2Off Target3

2Blocked5

4Inside Box5

1Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

297Total Passes337

181Accurate Passes237

61%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

22Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1