Bristol Rovers 1–0 Colchester: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colchester

E. Anderson 49'

3/15/2022

League Two · Round 37Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Bristol Rovers47%

×Draw25%

Colchester28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.17

Bristol Rovers

1.60

Colchester

1.17

Bristol Rovers creates 37% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.40

creates per match

1.21

1.13

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.40

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.13

Colchester

1.81

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.03on par

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

72%

Bristol Rovers or Colchester

75%

Draw or Colchester

53%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

24%

Colchester wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

80%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

47%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

22%

Colchester 1+ goals

69%

Colchester 2+ goals

33%

Colchester 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

63%

Colchester (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.40 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

Colchester attack 1.21 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

47%

level

25%

Colchester scores more

28%

Bristol Rovers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

E. Anderson

Bristol Rovers · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

Cole Skuse

42'

Luke Hannant

49'

E. Anderson

69'

H. Saunders← H. Anderson

70'

Owura Edwards

76'

J. Akinde← L. Hannant

80'

85'

85'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolColchester

Overview

68%Possession32%

10Total Shots9

3Corners7

11Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots9

4On Target3

2Off Target2

4Blocked4

5Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

589Total Passes260

492Accurate Passes172

84%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2