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Coastal Union vs Young Africans — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Coastal Union
Coastal Union
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Young Africans
Young Africans
11/8/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 9Mkwakwani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Coastal Union22%
×Draw30%
Young Africans47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coastal Union
0.72
Young Africans
1.20

Young Africans creates 67% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 112 away

creates per match

Coastal Union
0.98
Young Africans
1.60

allows per match

Coastal Union
0.79
Young Africans
0.46

finishing

Coastal Union+0.00on par
Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Union ↓

Young Africans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–118%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Coastal Union or draw
53%
Coastal Union or Young Africans
70%
Draw or Young Africans
78%

Winning margin

Coastal Union wins by 2+
6%
Young Africans wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Coastal Union 1+ goals
51%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
16%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
4%
Young Africans 1+ goals
70%
Young Africans 2+ goals
34%
Young Africans 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Coastal Union (draw refunded)
32%
Young Africans (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Union at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.79 · 110 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.46 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Union attack 0.98 + Young Africans defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.72

Young Africans attack 1.60 + Coastal Union defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Coastal Union scores more
22%
level
30%
Young Africans scores more
47%

Young Africans at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Coastal Union vs Young Africans

Young Africans beat Coastal Union 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Mkwakwani Stadium in Tanga.