Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3–1 Alianza Universidad

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Universidad

O. Takeuchi 90'

I. Camargo 90'

P. Bueno 32'

R. Campodonico 65'

3/30/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Municipal Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas55%

×Draw23%

Alianza Universidad21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.00

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.77

Alianza Universidad

1.00

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 77% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 62 away

1.74

creates per match

1.02

0.98

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.74

Alianza Universidad

1.02

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.98

Alianza Universidad

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

79%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Alianza Universidad

77%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

45%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

31%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

83%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

53%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

26%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

63%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

26%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

72%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.74 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Alianza Universidad attack 1.02 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

55%

level

23%

Alianza Universidad scores more

21%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Guivin Tanta

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · M

7.5

Match Events

32'

P. Bueno↳ S. Torres

39'

Franco Torres

46'

M. Lliuya← E. Oliva

46'

E. O. Vasquez Ortega← J. Sernaque

59'

J. Tunqui← A. Quiroz

59'

C. Velarde← L. Mifflin

65'

R. Campodonico↳ M. Lliuya

66'

K. Sanchez← J. Manzaneda

66'

I. Camargo← P. Bueno

67'

F. Leguia← F. E. Espinoza Vega

74'

Anthony Aoki

80'

Franco Saravia

80'

Franco SaraviaRed card cancelled

81'

N. Ramirez← A. Aoki

84'

O. Takeuchi← J. Guivin Tanta

89'

C. Rodriguez← R. Campodonico

90+6'

Isaac Camargo

90'

O. Takeuchi↳ S. Torres

90'

I. Camargo↳ C. Velarde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubAlianza

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots11

2Corners3

11Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots11

8On Target3

3Off Target6

0Blocked2

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

391Total Passes376

346Accurate Passes337

88%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

8Offsides3