Alianza Universidad vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 43+ matches
Alianza Universidad58%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas20%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Alianza Universidad creates 88% more chances
Season form · 43 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Alianza Universidad ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Alianza Universidad at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Alianza Universidad attack 2.09 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.90
Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.07 + Alianza Universidad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 58%?"
Alianza Universidad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 58% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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San MarcosIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Alianza Universidad host Club Deportivo Los Chankas on Friday, 20 October 2023 at 18:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Segunda División: Alianza Universidad 3–1 Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Alianza Universidad beat Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3-1 in Segunda División on October 20, 2023.
Goals: F. Schmidt (36'), Y. Vásquez (78'), O. Vásquez (90' pen), J. Sernaqué (90+2').
The match was played at Estadio Heraclio Tapia León in Huánuco.