Alianza Universidad 2–1 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Alianza Universidad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

R. Campodonico 90'

J. Escobar 66'

F. Torres 7'

8/30/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Heraclio Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Alianza Universidad47%

×Draw26%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.03

Alianza Universidad

1.46

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.03

Alianza Universidad creates 42% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 43 away

1.07

creates per match

0.86

1.21

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

1.07

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.86

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

1.21

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

73%

Alianza Universidad or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

74%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

53%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

77%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

43%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

18%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

64%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

28%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

64%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.84 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 1.07 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.46

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.86 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

47%

level

26%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

27%

Alianza Universidad at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Escobar

Alianza Universidad · F

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Alexi Edwin Gómez

7'

F. Torres↳ I. Camargo

26'

35'

38'

40'

46'

A. Gomez← A. Perleche

59'

R. Campodonico← J. J. Canela Torres

65'

K. Sanchez← J. Palomino

65'

65'

66'

77'

81'

D. Gonzales← A. Quintana

81'

B. Rivero← J. Guivin Tanta

83'

J. Sernaque← C. Ascues

90+10'

Rick Campodonico

90'

Omar Vasquez

90'

R. Campodonico

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaClub

Overview

71%Possession29%

17Total Shots11

6Corners4

10Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots11

8On Target3

4Off Target6

5Blocked2

8Inside Box8

9Outside Box3

Passing

71%Possession29%

511Total Passes205

438Accurate Passes143

86%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls17

4Yellow Cards4