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Clermont Foot vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sochaux
Sochaux
A. Grbic 83'
J. Allevinah 17'
3/6/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade Gabriel Montpied (Clermont-Ferrand)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot40%
×Draw29%
Sochaux31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.20
Sochaux
1.03

Clermont Foot creates 17% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 95 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
Sochaux
1.03

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
Sochaux
1.08

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Sochaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
69%
Clermont Foot or Sochaux
71%
Draw or Sochaux
60%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
17%
Sochaux wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
70%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
34%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
12%
Sochaux 1+ goals
64%
Sochaux 2+ goals
28%
Sochaux 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
56%
Sochaux (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Sochaux away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sochaux attack 1.03 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
40%
level
29%
Sochaux scores more
31%

Clermont Foot at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
F. OgierClermont FootClermont Foot · D
8.1

Match Events

17'
J. Allevinah↳ V. N'Simba
56'
S. Diop← G. Weissbeck
57'
A. Sané← A. Dia NDiaye
69'
C. Gomis← J. Allevinah
80'
J. Donisa← J. Berthomier
82'
B. Lasme← J. Livolant
83'
A. Grbic↳ F. Ogier
89'
Julio Donisa
90'
Ousseynou Thioune

Possession

54%Clermont

Shots

6Clermont

Pass accuracy

50%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontSochaux
Overview
54%Possession46%
6Total Shots14
4Corners6
10Fouls14
Shots
6Total Shots14
3On Target3
3Off Target6
0Blocked5
3Inside Box5
3Outside Box9
Passing
54%Possession46%
515Total Passes415
428Accurate Passes341
83%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Clermont Foot vs Sochaux

Clermont Foot beat Sochaux 2-0 in Ligue 2 on March 6, 2020.

Goals: J. Allevinah (17'), A. Grbic (83').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (54%) and registered 6 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied (Clermont-Ferrand) in Clermont-Ferrand.