Clermont Foot 2–1 Chateauroux: Result & Stats

Clermont Foot

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chateauroux

J. Berthomier 80', 6'

R. Grange 72'

4/26/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 35Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Clermont Foot48%

×Draw28%

Chateauroux24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.85

Clermont Foot

1.33

Chateauroux

0.85

Clermont Foot creates 56% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 50 away

1.33

creates per match

0.68

1.02

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.33

Chateauroux

0.68

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.02

Chateauroux

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

76%

Clermont Foot or Chateauroux

72%

Draw or Chateauroux

52%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

23%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

74%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

38%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

15%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

57%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

21%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

67%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 87 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.33 + Chateauroux defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chateauroux attack 0.68 + Clermont Foot defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

48%

level

28%

Chateauroux scores more

24%

Clermont Foot at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Berthomier

Clermont Foot · M

9.3

Match Events

6'

J. Berthomier

46'

Y. Merdji← A. Gonçalves

69'

J. Tell← J. Dossou

69'

C. Gomis← J. Allevinah

72'

R. Grange↳ P. Keny

80'

J. Berthomier↳ M. Bayo

81'

S. Chader← M. Bayo

81'

L. Rajot← J. Iglesias

85'

A. Ez Zaytouni← Y. Merdji

90+2'

F. Mendy← G. Tormin

90+2'

I. Cissé← A. Raineau

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontChateauroux

Overview

40%Possession60%

12Total Shots9

6Corners1

11Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots9

6On Target5

6Off Target2

0Blocked2

8Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

448Total Passes669

389Accurate Passes607

87%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Clermont Foot vs Chateauroux

Clermont Foot beat Chateauroux 2-1 in Ligue 2 on April 26, 2021.

Goals: J. Berthomier (6', 80'), R. Grange (72').

Chateauroux controlled possession (60%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.

Clermont Foot vs Chateauroux — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Clermont Foot vs Chateauroux