Chateauroux 0–1 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats

Chateauroux

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Clermont Foot

J. Allevinah 11'

12/22/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade Gaston Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chateauroux31%

×Draw27%

Clermont Foot41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.31

Chateauroux

1.10

Clermont Foot

1.31

Clermont Foot creates 19% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 92 away

1.06

creates per match

1.04

1.57

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.06

Clermont Foot

1.04

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.57

Clermont Foot

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

59%

Chateauroux or Clermont Foot

73%

Draw or Clermont Foot

69%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

12%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

67%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

30%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

10%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

73%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

38%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

43%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.14 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.06 + Clermont Foot defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Clermont Foot attack 1.04 + Chateauroux defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chateauroux scores more

31%

level

27%

Clermont Foot scores more

41%

Clermont Foot at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

A. Seidu

Clermont Foot · D

8.5

Match Events

11'

J. Allevinah↳ J. Berthomier

55'

I. Chouaref← G. Tormin

56'

C. Gomis← J. Allevinah

63'

G. Sunu← R. Boukari

63'

A. Nouri← R. Grange

71'

M. Bayo← J. Tell

71'

J. Iglesias← J. Berthomier

77'

82'

82'

83'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChateaurouxClermont

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots13

1Corners1

17Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots13

2On Target6

4Off Target7

1Blocked0

3Inside Box8

4Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

432Total Passes590

339Accurate Passes500

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Ligue 2: Chateauroux 0–1 Clermont Foot

Clermont Foot beat Chateauroux 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 22, 2020.

Goals: J. Allevinah (11').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Petit in Châteauroux.

Chateauroux vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Chateauroux 0–1 Clermont Foot