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Clermont Foot vs Chateauroux — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
3 – 1
Chateauroux
Chateauroux
8/5/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Clermont Foot47%
×Draw28%
Chateauroux25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.36
Chateauroux
0.91

Clermont Foot creates 49% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.22
Chateauroux
1.25

allows per match

Clermont Foot
0.56
Chateauroux
1.50

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Chateauroux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
75%
Clermont Foot or Chateauroux
72%
Draw or Chateauroux
53%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
22%
Chateauroux wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
74%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
39%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
16%
Chateauroux 1+ goals
60%
Chateauroux 2+ goals
23%
Chateauroux 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
65%
Chateauroux (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.22 + Chateauroux defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Chateauroux attack 1.25 + Clermont Foot defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
47%
level
28%
Chateauroux scores more
25%

Clermont Foot at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Clermont Foot vs Chateauroux

Clermont Foot beat Chateauroux 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.