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Ciudad de Lucena vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Central
Atlético Central
6/8/2025Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Ciudad de Lucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ciudad de Lucena27%
×Draw34%
Atlético Central39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Lucena
0.75
Atlético Central
0.96

Atlético Central creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Lucena
0.50
Atlético Central
0.67

allows per match

Ciudad de Lucena
1.25
Atlético Central
1.00

finishing

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par
Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Lucena ↓

Atlético Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ciudad de Lucena or draw
61%
Ciudad de Lucena or Atlético Central
66%
Draw or Atlético Central
73%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
8%
Atlético Central wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
53%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
17%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
4%
Atlético Central 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
41%
Atlético Central (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Lucena at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Lucena attack 0.50 + Atlético Central defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Atlético Central attack 0.67 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ciudad de Lucena scores more
27%
level
34%
Atlético Central scores more
39%

Atlético Central at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Ciudad de Lucena 0–0 Atlético Central

Ciudad de Lucena and Atlético Central drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lucena in Lucena.