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Atlético Central vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Atlético Central
Atlético Central
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
6/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Ciudad de Alcalá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Atlético Central45%
×Draw31%
Ciudad de Lucena24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Central
1.13
Ciudad de Lucena
0.75

Atlético Central creates 51% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Atlético Central
1.25
Ciudad de Lucena
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Central
0.50
Ciudad de Lucena
1.00

finishing

Atlético Central+0.00on par
Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Central ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Atlético Central or draw
76%
Atlético Central or Ciudad de Lucena
69%
Draw or Ciudad de Lucena
55%

Winning margin

Atlético Central wins by 2+
19%
Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Central 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
31%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
11%
Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
53%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
17%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Central (draw refunded)
65%
Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Central at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Central attack 1.25 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.00 + Atlético Central defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Central scores more
45%
level
31%
Ciudad de Lucena scores more
24%

Atlético Central at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Central vs Ciudad de Lucena

Atlético Central beat Ciudad de Lucena 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Alcalá in Alcalá de Guadaíra.