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Ciudad de Lucena vs Atlético Central — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Central
Atlético Central
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 31Estadio Ciudad de Lucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ciudad de Lucena55%
×Draw28%
Atlético Central18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Lucena
1.40
Atlético Central
0.67

Ciudad de Lucena creates 109% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Lucena
1.89
Atlético Central
0.77

allows per match

Ciudad de Lucena
0.56
Atlético Central
0.91

finishing

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par
Atlético Central+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Lucena ↓

Atlético Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ciudad de Lucena or draw
82%
Ciudad de Lucena or Atlético Central
72%
Draw or Atlético Central
45%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Central wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
75%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
41%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
17%
Atlético Central 1+ goals
49%
Atlético Central 2+ goals
15%
Atlético Central 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
75%
Atlético Central (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Lucena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 109 matches

Atlético Central away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.91 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.89 + Atlético Central defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Atlético Central attack 0.77 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ciudad de Lucena scores more
55%
level
28%
Atlético Central scores more
18%

Ciudad de Lucena at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Lucena 0 – 0 Atlético Central

Ciudad de Lucena and Atlético Central drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lucena in Lucena.