Cienciano 2–1 Alianza Lima: Result & Stats

Cienciano

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alianza Lima

C. Garcés 88', 21' (pen)

A. Fuentes 52'

3/14/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cienciano47%

×Draw27%

Alianza Lima26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiencianoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.99

Cienciano

1.41

Alianza Lima

0.99

Cienciano creates 42% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.99

creates per match

1.00

0.98

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Cienciano

1.99

Alianza Lima

1.00

allows per match

Cienciano

0.98

Alianza Lima

0.82

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Cienciano+0.21scores more

Alianza Lima-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw

74%

Cienciano or Alianza Lima

73%

Draw or Alianza Lima

53%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+

23%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals

76%

Cienciano 2+ goals

41%

Cienciano 3+ goals

17%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

63%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

26%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)

64%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.98 · 5 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.99 + Alianza Lima defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Alianza Lima attack 1.00 + Cienciano defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cienciano scores more

47%

level

27%

Alianza Lima scores more

26%

Cienciano at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Rodríguez

Alianza Lima · M

8.8

Match Events

21'

C. GarcésPenalty

29'

Carlos Garcés

29'

Carlos GarcésCard upgrade

38'

Hernán BarcosCard upgrade

39'

Hernán Barcos

46'

K. Serna← J. D´Arrigo

52'

A. Fuentes↳ S. Rodríguez

60'

Juan Freytes

68'

G. Ritacco← A. Ramúa

78'

D. La Torre← J. Romagnoli

79'

Franco Saravia

88'

C. Garcés↳ J. Estrada

90+3'

Marcelo Benítez

90'

Renzo Garces

90+1'

F. Zanelatto← J. Castillo

90+1'

C. Cabellos← M. Huamán

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CiencianoAlianza

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots12

1.60Expected Goals (xG)1.35

3Corners1

12Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots12

5On Target4

5Off Target6

1Blocked2

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

356Total Passes261

293Accurate Passes196

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0