Alianza Lima 0–1 Cienciano: Result & Stats

Alianza Lima

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cienciano

C. Cueva 90' (pen)

5/3/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Alianza Lima54%

×Draw24%

Cienciano22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchCienciano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.99

Alianza Lima

1.69

Cienciano

0.99

Alianza Lima creates 71% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 106 away

1.83

creates per match

1.21

0.77

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Alianza Lima

1.83

Cienciano

1.21

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.77

Cienciano

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Cienciano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Cienciano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

78%

Alianza Lima or Cienciano

76%

Draw or Cienciano

46%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

29%

Cienciano wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

82%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

50%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

24%

Cienciano 1+ goals

63%

Cienciano 2+ goals

26%

Cienciano 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

71%

Cienciano (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 151 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.83 + Cienciano defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cienciano attack 1.21 + Alianza Lima defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

54%

level

24%

Cienciano scores more

22%

Alianza Lima at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

L. E. Benites Vargas

Cienciano · M

7.7

Match Events

26'

35'

40'

52'

58'

F. Gaibor← P. Ceppelini

61'

Paolo Guerrero

70'

C. Cueva← L. E. Benites Vargas

72'

E. Castillo

79'

O. Noronha← C. Garces

80'

R. Palomino← J. Romagnoli

80'

D. La Torre← G. Gentile

83'

P. Cari← P. Lavandeira Hernandez

90+1'

90+1'

90+2'

90+2'

90+14'

90+15'

90'

C. CuevaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaCienciano

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots13

6Corners5

16Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots13

3On Target5

9Off Target6

3Blocked2

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box7

Passing

48%Possession52%

310Total Passes347

241Accurate Passes258

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls14

6Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards0

7Offsides2