Alianza Lima 3–0 Cienciano: Result & Stats

Alianza Lima

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cienciano

Pablo Sabbag 85'

C. Cabellos 70', 45+3'

8/21/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Alianza Lima57%

×Draw24%

Cienciano20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza LimaExpected goals in this matchCienciano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.92

Alianza Lima

1.75

Cienciano

0.92

Alianza Lima creates 90% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 93 away

1.94

creates per match

1.24

0.60

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Alianza Lima

1.94

Cienciano

1.24

allows per match

Alianza Lima

0.60

Cienciano

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Cienciano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Cienciano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw

80%

Alianza Lima or Cienciano

76%

Draw or Cienciano

43%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

32%

Cienciano wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

83%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

52%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

25%

Cienciano 1+ goals

60%

Cienciano 2+ goals

23%

Cienciano 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

74%

Cienciano (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.60 · 94 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.57 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.94 + Cienciano defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Cienciano attack 1.24 + Alianza Lima defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alianza Lima scores more

57%

level

24%

Cienciano scores more

20%

Alianza Lima at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

C. Cabellos

Alianza Lima · M

8.5

Match Events

21'

C. Cabellos← F. Zanelatto

25'

Ricardo Lagos

45+3'

C. Cabellos↳ J. Freytes

46'

J. Castillo← R. Lagos

57'

G. Ritacco← A. Ramúa

57'

A. Ramírez← J. Romagnoli

70'

C. Cabellos↳ S. Rodríguez

74'

D. La Torre← A. Rodríguez

77'

A. Fuentes← E. Noriega

77'

J. D´Arrigo← M. Succar

85'

Pablo Sabbag

85'

Pablo Sabbag↳ J. D´Arrigo

87'

M. Huamán← Pablo Sabbag

87'

L. Mifflin← G. Mera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaCienciano

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots6

1.68Expected Goals (xG)0.21

4Corners2

8Fouls5

Shots

15Total Shots6

7On Target0

7Off Target5

1Blocked1

8Inside Box5

7Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

430Total Passes347

356Accurate Passes266

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls5

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2