Cienciano 3–2 Alianza Atletico: Result & Stats

Cienciano

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Alianza Atletico

J. Estrada 87'

D. La Torre 82'

L. E. Benites Vargas 17'

G. A. Larios Saavedra 43'

E. Perleche 29'

6/22/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 16Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cienciano58%

×Draw25%

Alianza Atletico17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiencianoExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.76

Cienciano

1.63

Alianza Atletico

0.76

Cienciano creates 114% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.95

creates per match

0.66

0.86

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Cienciano

1.95

Alianza Atletico

0.66

allows per match

Cienciano

0.86

Alianza Atletico

1.30

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Cienciano-0.03on par

Alianza Atletico-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw

83%

Cienciano or Alianza Atletico

75%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

42%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+

32%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals

80%

Cienciano 2+ goals

48%

Cienciano 3+ goals

22%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

53%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

18%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)

77%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 12 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.95 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.63

Alianza Atletico attack 0.66 + Cienciano defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cienciano scores more

58%

level

25%

Alianza Atletico scores more

17%

Cienciano at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Estrada

Cienciano · M

8.0

Match Events

-5'

Santiago Arias

17'

L. E. Benites Vargas↳ O. Noronha

29'

E. Perleche↳ J. C. Villegas

41'

Santiago Arias

41'

Miguel Agustín Graneros

43'

G. A. Larios Saavedra↳ A. Graneros

45+2'

Miguel Agustín GranerosGoal confirmed

48'

José Villegas

59'

H. Lupu← G. A. Larios Saavedra

62'

A. Gonzalez← J. Ortiz

62'

G. Gentile← L. E. Benites Vargas

68'

D. La Torre← B. Da Silva

68'

C. Garces← O. Noronha

71'

R. Castro← L. Olmedo

72'

R. Diaz← J. Perez

76'

A. Ascues← S. D. Arias Fierro

77'

Maximiliano Amondarain

82'

D. La Torre

84'

Didier La TorreGoal confirmed

87'

J. Estrada↳ A. Ascues

90+2'

R. Espinosa← C. Vasquez

90+2'

J. del Castillo← H. Benincasa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CiencianoAlianza

Overview

68%Possession32%

15Total Shots10

3Corners3

7Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots10

7On Target3

5Off Target4

3Blocked3

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box5

Passing

68%Possession32%

416Total Passes193

337Accurate Passes121

81%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Primera División: Cienciano 3–2 Alianza Atletico

Cienciano beat Alianza Atletico 3-2 in Primera División on June 22, 2025.

Goals: L. E. Benites Vargas (17'), E. Perleche (29'), G. A. Larios Saavedra (43'), D. La Torre (82'), J. Estrada (87').

Cienciano controlled possession (68%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.

Cienciano vs Alianza Atletico — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Cienciano 3–2 Alianza Atletico