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Cienciano vs Alianza Atletico — Primera División 2026

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
D. La Torre 63'
G. Mera 42'
C. Garcés 3'
10/24/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 15Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cienciano58%
×Draw25%
Alianza Atletico17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
1.63
Alianza Atletico
0.76

Cienciano creates 114% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Cienciano
1.95
Alianza Atletico
0.66

allows per match

Cienciano
0.86
Alianza Atletico
1.30

finishing

Cienciano-0.03on par
Alianza Atletico-0.26scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Alianza Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
83%
Cienciano or Alianza Atletico
75%
Draw or Alianza Atletico
42%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
32%
Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
80%
Cienciano 2+ goals
48%
Cienciano 3+ goals
22%
Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
53%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
18%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
77%
Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.86 · 12 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.95 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.63

Alianza Atletico attack 0.66 + Cienciano defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cienciano scores more
58%
level
25%
Alianza Atletico scores more
17%

Cienciano at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
G. RitaccoCiencianoCienciano · M
8.9

Match Events

3'
C. Garcés↳ G. Ritacco
22'
D. La Torre← C. Cueva
26'
Josué Estrada
28'
Claudio Torrejón
42'
G. Mera↳ G. Ritacco
46'
C. Vásquez← A. Perleche
46'
R. Castro← S. Fernández
63'
D. La Torre↳ G. Ritacco
64'
R. Espinosa← J. del Castillo
64'
J. Canela← G. Larios
68'
Jeremy Canela
70'
J. Mendieta← A. Fernández
71'
R. Palomino← A. Ramúa
71'
P. Ibáñez← J. Estrada
76'
A. Rodríguez← J. Romagnoli

Possession

52%Cienciano

Shots

7Cienciano

Pass accuracy

51%Cienciano

Statistics

CiencianoAlianza
Overview
52%Possession48%
7Total Shots16
6Corners6
17Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots16
4On Target5
2Off Target7
1Blocked4
4Inside Box8
3Outside Box8
Passing
52%Possession48%
287Total Passes263
241Accurate Passes212
84%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls8
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Primera División: Cienciano 3–0 Alianza Atletico

Cienciano beat Alianza Atletico 3-0 in Primera División on October 24, 2024.

Goals: C. Garcés (3'), G. Mera (42'), D. La Torre (63').

Cienciano controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.