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Alianza Atletico vs Cienciano — Primera División 2026

Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cienciano
Cienciano
L. E. Benites Vargas 87' (pen)
10/25/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Campeones del 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Alianza Atletico46%
×Draw27%
Cienciano27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Atletico
1.42
Cienciano
1.03

Alianza Atletico creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Alianza Atletico
1.42
Cienciano
1.23

allows per match

Alianza Atletico
0.84
Cienciano
1.42

finishing

Alianza Atletico-0.42scores less
Cienciano+0.02on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Cienciano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw
73%
Alianza Atletico or Cienciano
73%
Draw or Cienciano
54%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+
22%
Cienciano wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals
76%
Alianza Atletico 2+ goals
41%
Alianza Atletico 3+ goals
17%
Cienciano 1+ goals
64%
Cienciano 2+ goals
28%
Cienciano 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)
63%
Cienciano (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.84 · 15 matches

Cienciano away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.42 + Cienciano defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Cienciano attack 1.23 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more
46%
level
27%
Cienciano scores more
27%

Alianza Atletico at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
J. BoladoCiencianoCienciano · G
7.9

Match Events

-5'
Guillermo Larios
-5'
Guillermo Larios
-5'
Ignacio Barrios
3'
Guillermo Larios
3'
Santiago Arias
11'
Leonel Galeano
36'
Luis Olmedo
49'
Hernan Lupú
50'
Beto Da Silva
57'
N. Amasifuen← J. Valoyes
59'
Nicolas Amasifuen
63'
R. Diaz← L. Olmedo
64'
J. Perez← H. Lupu
64'
F. Ysique← G. A. Larios Saavedra
65'
L. E. Benites Vargas← A. Hohberg
65'
C. Souza Espana← B. Da Silva
87'
L. E. Benites VargasPenalty
88'
A. Gordillo← C. Vasquez
88'
F. Flores← P. Guzman
90+8'
Miguel Agustín GranerosPenalty confirmed
90+9'
Christian Neira
90+7'
Luis Benites

Possession

49%Alianza

Shots

15Alianza

Pass accuracy

48%Alianza

Statistics

AlianzaCienciano
Overview
49%Possession51%
15Total Shots9
1.92Expected Goals (xG)1.31
6Corners1
19Fouls17
Shots
15Total Shots9
4On Target2
5Off Target4
6Blocked3
11Inside Box5
4Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
240Total Passes264
156Accurate Passes184
65%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls17
4Yellow Cards6
1Red Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Alianza Atletico vs Cienciano

Cienciano beat Alianza Atletico 1-0 in Primera División on October 25, 2025.

Goals: L. E. Benites Vargas (87' pen).

Cienciano controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones del 36 in Sullana.