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Chikhura Sachkhere vs WIT Georgia — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
5/11/2019Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 12Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni (Tbilisi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere47%
×Draw27%
WIT Georgia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.41
WIT Georgia
0.99

Chikhura Sachkhere creates 42% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 18 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.43
WIT Georgia
0.44

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.54
WIT Georgia
1.39

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

WIT Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
74%
Chikhura Sachkhere or WIT Georgia
73%
Draw or WIT Georgia
53%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
23%
WIT Georgia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
76%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
41%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
17%
WIT Georgia 1+ goals
63%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
26%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
64%
WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

WIT Georgia away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 1.43 + WIT Georgia defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.41

WIT Georgia attack 0.44 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
47%
level
27%
WIT Georgia scores more
26%

Chikhura Sachkhere at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chikhura Sachkhere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Chikhura Sachkhere 1–0 WIT Georgia

Chikhura Sachkhere beat WIT Georgia 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni (Tbilisi).