Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chico vs Atletico Nacional — Primera A 2025

Chico
Chico
Preview
19:00
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
7/25/2026Primera APrimera A · Clausura - 1Estadio La Independencia
Big match
37%
Chico
model favours
37%29%34%

Atletico Nacional score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chico37%
×Draw29%
Atletico Nacional34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chico
1.13
Atletico Nacional
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

creates per match

Chico
1.00
Atletico Nacional
1.33

allows per match

Chico
0.79
Atletico Nacional
1.26

finishing

Chico+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chico or draw
66%
Chico or Atletico Nacional
71%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
63%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+
15%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals
68%
Chico 2+ goals
31%
Chico 3+ goals
11%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
29%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)
52%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.00 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atletico Nacional attack 1.33 + Chico defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chico scores more
37%
level
29%
Atletico Nacional scores more
34%

Chico at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chico win just 4% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Chico play Direct / counter-attacking, Atletico Nacional Possession-dominant
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.4 goals
  • Atletico Nacional outscore their xG (2.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Chico fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chico
Direct / counter-attacking
Atletico Nacional
Possession-dominant
44%Possession56%
76%Pass accuracy83%
9.3ShotsBiggest gap15.4
1.26xG1.55
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChicoAtletico Nacional

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Chico
1
Draws
3
Atletico Nacional
Avg goals: 4.4BTTS: 80%
0–41–11–42–62–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chico
LDWDW
Nacional
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chico face Atletico Nacional (Primera A)

Primera A returns with Chico hosting Atletico Nacional. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chico host Atletico Nacional at Estadio La Independencia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.