Chico 1–1 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Chico

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Nacional

Johan Bocanegra 36'

A. Morelos 90' (pen)

10/6/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 14Estadio La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chico37%

×Draw29%

Atletico Nacional34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChicoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.06

Chico

1.13

Atletico Nacional

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

0.79

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Chico

1.00

Atletico Nacional

1.33

allows per match

Chico

0.79

Atletico Nacional

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chico+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Chico or draw

66%

Chico or Atletico Nacional

71%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

63%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+

15%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals

68%

Chico 2+ goals

31%

Chico 3+ goals

11%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)

52%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.00 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atletico Nacional attack 1.33 + Chico defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Chico scores more

37%

level

29%

Atletico Nacional scores more

34%

Chico at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Morelos

Atletico Nacional · F

7.9

Match Events

28'

Kevin Cortes

36'

Johan Bocanegra

40'

Juan Manuel Rengifo

46'

A. Valencia← K. Cortes

54'

J. G. Marcelin Perez← Johan Bocanegra

60'

J. Bauza← J. Rengifo

60'

A. Morelos← F. Batista

71'

E. Garcia← J. Ampudia

72'

C. Candido← A. Salazar

72'

M. Moreno← A. Sarmiento

77'

E. Peralta← V. Hernandez

79'

Jairo Molina

79'

Jorman Campuzano

83'

D. Asprilla← M. Hinestroza

87'

Darío Denis

90+5'

Kevin Londoño

90+6'

William Tesillo

90+3'

Alfredo MorelosPenalty confirmed

90'

A. MorelosPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicoAtletico

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots19

3Corners10

13Fouls8

Shots

7Total Shots19

1On Target7

5Off Target8

1Blocked4

4Inside Box9

3Outside Box10

Passing

48%Possession52%

338Total Passes359

274Accurate Passes298

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls8

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3