Atletico Nacional 6–2 Chico: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

6 – 2

HT: 4 – 1

Chico

E. Cardona 57' (pen)

A. Morelos 48'

J. Zapata 29'

A. Sarmiento 18'

Á. Angulo 5', 1'

M. Gómez 51'

S. Támara 43'

9/29/2024

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Atletico Nacional67%

×Draw19%

Chico14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.90

Atletico Nacional

2.23

Chico

0.90

Atletico Nacional creates 148% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.01

creates per match

1.11

0.68

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

2.01

Chico

1.11

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.68

Chico

2.46

+1.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.91scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.32scores more

Chico-0.91scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

86%

Atletico Nacional or Chico

81%

Draw or Chico

33%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

44%

Chico wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

89%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

65%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

38%

Chico 1+ goals

59%

Chico 2+ goals

23%

Chico 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

83%

Chico (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Chico away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.01 + Chico defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.23

Chico attack 1.11 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

67%

level

19%

Chico scores more

14%

Atletico Nacional at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Á. Angulo

Atletico Nacional · D

8.6

Match Events

1'

Á. Angulo↳ A. Sarmiento

5'

Á. Angulo

18'

A. Sarmiento

24'

A. Aedo← J. Pérez

24'

J. Quiceno← J. Pimentel

29'

J. Zapata↳ E. Cardona

33'

Sebastián Guzmán

43'

S. Támara↳ H. Plazas

46'

S. Velásquez← Á. Angulo

46'

D. Asprilla← A. Sarmiento

48'

A. Morelos↳ J. Castro

51'

M. Gómez↳ J. Herrera

52'

J. Altamiranda← E. Banguero

52'

A. Valencia← D. Sánchez

57'

E. CardonaPenalty

61'

P. Ceppelini← J. Zapata

62'

J. Campuzano← S. Guzmán

72'

Marino Hinestroza

76'

K. Viveros← M. Hinestroza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoChico

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots15

5Corners9

10Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots15

9On Target7

1Off Target4

2Blocked4

6Inside Box5

6Outside Box10

Passing

53%Possession47%

401Total Passes344

324Accurate Passes285

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides5

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 6–2 Chico

Atletico Nacional beat Chico 6-2 in Primera A on September 29, 2024.

Goals: Á. Angulo (1', 5'), A. Sarmiento (18'), J. Zapata (29'), S. Támara (43'), A. Morelos (48'), M. Gómez (51'), E. Cardona (57' pen).

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.

Atletico Nacional vs Chico — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 6–2 Chico