Atletico Nacional 4–0 Chico: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chico

J. Bauza 84'

W. Tesillo 77'

E. Cardona 55'

A. Sarmiento 41'

1/17/2026

Primera A · Apertura - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Atletico Nacional67%

×Draw19%

Chico14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchChico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.90

Atletico Nacional

2.23

Chico

0.90

Atletico Nacional creates 148% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.01

creates per match

1.11

0.68

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

2.01

Chico

1.11

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.68

Chico

2.46

+1.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.91scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Nacional+1.32scores more

Chico-0.91scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Chico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

86%

Atletico Nacional or Chico

81%

Draw or Chico

33%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

44%

Chico wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

89%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

65%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

38%

Chico 1+ goals

59%

Chico 2+ goals

23%

Chico 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

83%

Chico (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.68 · 9 matches

Chico away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 2.01 + Chico defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.23

Chico attack 1.11 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

67%

level

19%

Chico scores more

14%

Atletico Nacional at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Cardona

Atletico Nacional · M

8.9

Match Events

10'

Juan Manuel Rengifo

16'

Delio Ramírez

41'

A. Sarmiento↳ J. Rengifo

46'

J. Diaz← S. Salazar

46'

J. Mena← D. A. Ramirez Raigosa

52'

Nicolás Valencia

55'

E. Cardona↳ M. Moreno

66'

N. Rodriguez← A. Sarmiento

69'

J. Romana← J. Pimentel

69'

A. Saldana← d. J. Diaz Montes J.

75'

J. Rosa← M. Moreno

75'

J. Bauza← E. Cardona

77'

W. Tesillo↳ J. Rengifo

79'

Milton Casco

81'

S. Velasquez← M. Casco

81'

M. Lozano← J. Rengifo

83'

Samuel Velásquez

84'

J. Bauza↳ D. Asprilla

90+1'

J. Castillo← J. Molina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoChico

Overview

60%Possession40%

25Total Shots11

2.81Expected Goals (xG)1.27

8Corners2

15Fouls8

Shots

25Total Shots11

10On Target2

7Off Target6

8Blocked3

15Inside Box7

10Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

451Total Passes306

405Accurate Passes254

90%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 4–0 Chico

Atletico Nacional beat Chico 4-0 in Primera A on January 17, 2026.

Goals: A. Sarmiento (41'), E. Cardona (55'), W. Tesillo (77'), J. Bauza (84').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (60%) and registered 25 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.

Atletico Nacional vs Chico — Primera A 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Atletico Nacional 4–0 Chico