Chico 0–3 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Chico

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Nacional

A. Andrade 68' (pen)

G. Torres 59', 9'

2/12/2020

Primera A · Round 4Estadio de La Independencia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chico36%

×Draw30%

Atletico Nacional34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChicoExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.03

Chico

1.06

Atletico Nacional

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

1.02

creates per match

1.15

0.92

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Chico

1.02

Atletico Nacional

1.15

allows per match

Chico

0.92

Atletico Nacional

1.10

+0.78scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Chico+0.78scores more

Atletico Nacional+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chico ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Chico or draw

66%

Chico or Atletico Nacional

70%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

64%

Winning margin

Chico wins by 2+

14%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Chico 1+ goals

65%

Chico 2+ goals

29%

Chico 3+ goals

9%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

64%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

28%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chico (draw refunded)

51%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chico at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.92 · 10 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.10 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chico attack 1.02 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Atletico Nacional attack 1.15 + Chico defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chico scores more

36%

level

30%

Atletico Nacional scores more

34%

Chico at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

G. Torres

Atletico Nacional · F

9.2

Match Events

9'

G. Torres↳ Y. Candelo

15'

20'

24'

30'

37'

46'

D. Echeverri← B. Urueña

59'

G. Torres↳ F. González

61'

J. González← J. Vela

61'

D. Quiñónes← S. Gómez

65'

A. Andrade← G. Torres

68'

A. AndradePenalty

71'

Yerson Candelo

71'

B. Córdoba← Y. Candelo

73'

Brayan Cordoba

79'

Juan Camilo Perez

84'

M. Palacios← N. Tapia

90'

Jonathan Muñoz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChicoAtletico

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots19

6Corners6

12Fouls24

Shots

8Total Shots19

2On Target7

3Off Target11

3Blocked1

4Inside Box13

4Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

272Total Passes320

217Accurate Passes268

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls24

6Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1