Valerenga 1–1 Stabaek: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Valerenga

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Stabaek

R. Lindkvist 84'

M. Keita 3' (pen)

10/16/2016

Eliteserien · Round 27Ullevaal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Valerenga54%

×Draw22%

Stabaek24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ValerengaExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.19

Valerenga

1.90

Stabaek

1.19

Valerenga creates 60% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 59 away

1.89

creates per match

1.10

1.28

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Valerenga

1.89

Stabaek

1.10

allows per match

Valerenga

1.28

Stabaek

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Valerenga+0.00on par

Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Valerenga ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Valerenga or draw

76%

Valerenga or Stabaek

78%

Draw or Stabaek

46%

Winning margin

Valerenga wins by 2+

31%

Stabaek wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Valerenga 1+ goals

85%

Valerenga 2+ goals

56%

Valerenga 3+ goals

29%

Stabaek 1+ goals

70%

Stabaek 2+ goals

33%

Stabaek 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Valerenga (draw refunded)

69%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Valerenga at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Valerenga attack 1.89 + Stabaek defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.90

Stabaek attack 1.10 + Valerenga defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Valerenga scores more

54%

level

22%

Stabaek scores more

24%

Valerenga at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Valerenga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

M. Keita

Stabaek · M

8.4

Match Events

3'

M. KeitaPenalty

29'

53'

55'

64'

70'

70'

M. Escoe← S. Pedersen

83'

O. Omoijuanfo← M. Njie

84'

R. Lindkvist

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ValerengaStabaek

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots11

10Corners3

14Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots11

3On Target6

5Off Target3

4Blocked2

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

462Total Passes353

383Accurate Passes260

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2