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Chesterfield vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
14:00
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
4/24/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 43SMH Group Stadium
Big match
44%
Chesterfield
model favours
44%26%30%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chesterfield44%
×Draw26%
Cheltenham30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.49
Cheltenham
1.18

Chesterfield creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.57
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.34
Cheltenham
1.41

finishing

Chesterfield-0.21scores less
Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
70%
Chesterfield or Cheltenham
74%
Draw or Cheltenham
56%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
22%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
77%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
44%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
19%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
69%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
33%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
60%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.57 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Chesterfield defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chesterfield scores more
44%
level
26%
Cheltenham scores more
30%

Chesterfield at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chesterfield sit 7, Cheltenham 18 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
Cheltenham
Balanced
60%Possession48%
78%Pass accuracy66%
12.2Shots10.6
1.38xGBiggest gap1.08
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChesterfieldCheltenham

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Chesterfield
2
Draws
3
Cheltenham
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 40%
1–02–00–11–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
Cheltenham
WLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Chesterfield host Cheltenham

April 24, 2027: Chesterfield take on Cheltenham in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Chesterfield host Cheltenham at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.