Cheltenham 1–0 Chesterfield: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chesterfield

A. Jude-Boyd 90+2'

2/1/2025

League Two · Round 30EV Charger Points Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Cheltenham36%

×Draw25%

Chesterfield39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.42

Cheltenham

1.35

Chesterfield

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.13

creates per match

1.22

1.61

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Chesterfield

1.22

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.61

Chesterfield

1.57

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more

Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

61%

Cheltenham or Chesterfield

75%

Draw or Chesterfield

64%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

16%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

74%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

39%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

15%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

76%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

41%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

48%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cheltenham scores more

36%

level

25%

Chesterfield scores more

39%

Chesterfield at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

A. Jude-Boyd

Cheltenham · D

7.7

Match Events

8'

Dylan Duffy

18'

V. Adedokun← S. Bennett

45'

Michael Olakigbe

61'

Liam Kinsella

66'

Jamie Grimes

66'

G. Miller← A. Hay

67'

E. Williams← T. Backwell

69'

Jordan Thomas

72'

A. Pepple← P. Madden

72'

R. Colclough← J. Sparkes

83'

O. Banks← M. Olakigbe

90+5'

I. Bakare← J. Thomas

90+5'

D. Power← A. Jude-Boyd

90+2'

A. Jude-Boyd

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamChesterfield

Overview

36%Possession64%

10Total Shots17

2Corners8

11Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots17

4On Target3

5Off Target8

1Blocked6

6Inside Box7

4Outside Box10

Passing

36%Possession64%

231Total Passes404

120Accurate Passes302

52%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0