Chesterfield 1–1 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cheltenham

D. Markanday 27'

A. Jude-Boyd 53'

9/21/2024

League Two · Round 7SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chesterfield44%

×Draw26%

Cheltenham30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.18

Chesterfield

1.49

Cheltenham

1.18

Chesterfield creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

1.01

1.34

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.57

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.34

Cheltenham

1.41

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Chesterfield-0.21scores less

Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

70%

Chesterfield or Cheltenham

74%

Draw or Cheltenham

56%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

22%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

77%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

44%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

19%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

69%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

33%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

60%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.57 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Chesterfield defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chesterfield scores more

44%

level

26%

Cheltenham scores more

30%

Chesterfield at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

O. Evans

Cheltenham · G

7.5

Match Events

21'

Tom Naylor

27'

D. Markanday↳ J. Berry-McNally

53'

Devan Tanton

53'

A. Jude-Boyd↳ J. Colwill

55'

T. Pett← A. Jude-Boyd

57'

Sam Stubbs

68'

L. Dulson← M. Taylor

69'

H. Araujo← J. Metcalfe

69'

R. Colclough← J. Berry-McNally

82'

P. Madden← K. Drummond

82'

L. Mandeville← D. Markanday

82'

L. Kinsella← L. Shipley

85'

Darren Oldaker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldCheltenham

Overview

68%Possession32%

13Total Shots7

6Corners1

10Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots7

5On Target3

5Off Target4

3Blocked0

11Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

68%Possession32%

501Total Passes245

408Accurate Passes148

81%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3