Cheltenham 1–1 Chesterfield: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chesterfield

B. Graham 79'

K. Dennis 74'

3/17/2018

League Two · Round 38Whaddon Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Cheltenham34%

×Draw25%

Chesterfield41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.48

Cheltenham

1.32

Chesterfield

1.48

Chesterfield creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.13

creates per match

1.34

1.61

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.13

Chesterfield

1.34

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.61

Chesterfield

1.52

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.18scores more

Chesterfield-0.05on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

59%

Cheltenham or Chesterfield

75%

Draw or Chesterfield

66%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

15%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

73%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

38%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

15%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

77%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

43%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

45%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 13 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.52 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.13 + Chesterfield defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Chesterfield attack 1.34 + Cheltenham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cheltenham scores more

34%

level

25%

Chesterfield scores more

41%

Chesterfield at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

28'

54'

73'

74'

76'

78'

79'

B. Graham↳ J. Morrell

82'

J. Binnom-Williams← J. Kay

84'

Jerome Binnom-Williams

Cheltenham

Chesterfield

1

22

24

35

17

A

33

28

27

37

▼

Kay

9

⚽

Dennis

44

▼

Brown

24

Flinders

2

▼

28

33

15

8

▼

Dawson

11

Wincheste

6

Atangana

25

A

Morrell

35

▼

Andrews

20

Eisa

Manager: G. Johnson

54'▲H. Pell←▼J. Andrews

76'▲J. Rodon←▼J. Grimes

78'▲B. Graham←▼K. Dawson

Cheltenham substitutes

7Pell27Rodon21Graham3Cranston22Lovett29Odelusi50Lloyd

Manager: J. Lester

73'▲L. Dodds←▼J. Brown

82'▲J. Binnom-Williams←▼J. Kay

Chesterfield substitutes

19Dodds3Binnom-Williams10O'Grady12Anyon20Maguire26McCourt41Hines