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Chesterfield vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Chesterfield
Chesterfield
Preview
15:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
1/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 24SMH Group Stadium
50%
Chesterfield
model favours
50%24%26%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chesterfield50%
×Draw24%
Accrington ST26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chesterfield
1.69
Accrington ST
1.14

Chesterfield creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Chesterfield
1.69
Accrington ST
0.90

allows per match

Chesterfield
1.38
Accrington ST
1.69

finishing

Chesterfield-0.19scores less
Accrington ST-0.10scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw
74%
Chesterfield or Accrington ST
76%
Draw or Accrington ST
50%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+
27%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals
82%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
50%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
24%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
68%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
32%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)
66%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.69 + Accrington ST defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Accrington ST attack 0.90 + Chesterfield defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chesterfield scores more
50%
level
24%
Accrington ST scores more
26%

Chesterfield at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
Accrington ST
Balanced
60%Possession47%
78%Pass accuracy62%
12.3Shots11.4
1.50xGBiggest gap0.94
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ChesterfieldAccrington ST

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
Chesterfield
1
Draws
1
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 25%
1–03–31–00–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Chesterfield
LDDLW
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chesterfield face Accrington ST (League Two)

League Two returns with Chesterfield hosting Accrington ST. Match starts January 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chesterfield host Accrington ST at SMH Group Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.