Accrington ST 0–1 Chesterfield: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chesterfield

W. Grigg 32'

5/3/2025

League Two · Round 46Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Accrington ST39%

×Draw27%

Chesterfield33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.15

Accrington ST

1.27

Chesterfield

1.15

Accrington ST creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

0.98

creates per match

1.22

1.07

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.98

Chesterfield

1.22

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.07

Chesterfield

1.57

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.35scores more

Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

67%

Accrington ST or Chesterfield

73%

Draw or Chesterfield

61%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

17%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

72%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

36%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

14%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

68%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

32%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

54%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.98 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Accrington ST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accrington ST scores more

39%

level

27%

Chesterfield scores more

33%

Accrington ST at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Palmer

Chesterfield · D

7.9

Match Events

32'

W. Grigg

55'

J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh← C. Grant

66'

J. Woods← C. Caton

67'

A. Hunter← C. Brown

78'

Kyle McFadzean

79'

M. Jacobs← M. Olakigbe

79'

D. Duffy← R. Colclough

80'

A. Pepple← W. Grigg

82'

A. Popoola← K. Mooney

82'

T. Walton← A. Henderson

85'

Aribim Pepple

90+6'

J. Grimes← J. Metcalfe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonChesterfield

Overview

36%Possession64%

13Total Shots14

3Corners7

12Fouls5

Shots

13Total Shots14

3On Target6

8Off Target5

2Blocked3

9Inside Box12

4Outside Box2

Passing

36%Possession64%

255Total Passes450

165Accurate Passes331

65%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls5

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2