Chesterfield 0–3 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Accrington ST

J. Knowles 69'

Z. Awe 65'

J. Woods 18'

11/9/2024

League Two · Round 15SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Chesterfield50%

×Draw24%

Accrington ST26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.14

Chesterfield

1.69

Accrington ST

1.14

Chesterfield creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.69

creates per match

0.90

1.38

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.69

Accrington ST

0.90

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.38

Accrington ST

1.69

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Chesterfield-0.19scores less

Accrington ST-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

74%

Chesterfield or Accrington ST

76%

Draw or Accrington ST

50%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

27%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

82%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

50%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

24%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

68%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

32%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

66%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.38 · 12 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.69 + Accrington ST defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Accrington ST attack 0.90 + Chesterfield defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chesterfield scores more

50%

level

24%

Accrington ST scores more

26%

Chesterfield at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Z. Awe

Accrington ST · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

34'

46'

51'

65'

69'

J. Knowles↳ T. Walton

70'

Darren Oldaker

72'

Tyler Walton

74'

P. Madden← J. Grimes

74'

L. Mandeville← D. Tanton

75'

R. Colclough← J. Berry-McNally

78'

Tom Naylor

78'

M. Jacobs← A. Dobra

86'

S. Conneely← N. Khumbeni

88'

C. Cook← D. Markanday

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldAccrington

Overview

77%Possession23%

13Total Shots7

7Corners1

5Fouls20

Shots

13Total Shots7

4On Target5

5Off Target2

4Blocked0

7Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

77%Possession23%

602Total Passes179

517Accurate Passes92

86%Pass Accuracy51%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2